With Italy engaged in the election of the President of the Republic, Ukrainian President Zelensky's claim that the White House is making the threat of the Russian invasion "as incandescent as possible" has not had much evidence in our media and, according to him, this is a mistake, even aggravated by the simultaneous withdrawal of part of the staff and family members of the diplomatic staff of the United States, Australia, Germany and the United Kingdom, a move made in a "redundant" way and, in any case, of itself wrong.
But why does the Ukrainian leader seem more worried about the behavior of his friends than about the aggression of his neighbors? Let's try to understand, starting from the news of the last two days.
Moscow flexes its muscles ...
The movements of Russian troops continue on the eastern border of Ukraine: the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (200-я отдельная мотострелковая бригада), a military formation of the 14th Army Corps, part of the Russian Northern Military District, is reported to be moving (rail of course) to the south, which in itself is not a great novelty given that its men and means would already have been employees, without Russian insignia, in Donbass.
We note that the 200th brigade is equipped with T-80BVM front-line combat tanks - the latest version in which all components have been improved: fire, protection and mobility.
The news of the delivery of medical materials and blood from transfusions spread early in the morning and indicated as a sign of Russian military readiness by Western sources was denied.
Washington does not stand by ...
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has announced that 81 tons of ammunition of various calibers have been delivered to Ukraine. Next week Kiev expects more US aircraft with military-technical assistance to strengthen its defense capabilities.
American surveillance flights continue over the area in front of Russian territorial waters in the Black Sea.
The United States has contacted Budapest for the temporary deployment of troops, as confirmed by the Hungarian foreign ministry. Hungary "received an American request for the temporary deployment of troops" in the country. The defense ministry is conducting talks on the matter.
The doubt remains ...
Scary, right? Yet, various local Russian and Ukrainian sources consulted by us do not remove the author of this article from the doubt that all this is nothing but a gigantic charade, which the United States and the Russian Federation think - rightly or wrongly - they can control a own benefit.
Let's look at the facts ...
Does Moscow like it that way?
In 2014, the occupation of Crimea and the dirty war in Donbass prevented Russia from returning to the surface in Ukraine, as had always happened in the previous twenty years: even though it did not even manage to transform the "sister nation" into a state " landlocked "by bringing to the Russian Federation a whole strip of territory between Transnistria and the Don basin, Moscow has been able to dig a ditch of resentment and distrust with the Ukrainian population, which will not allow any Kiev leader to deal with Russia a solution that involves territorial adjustments and good relations. Moscow has achieved a similar effect by continuously putting pressure on other neighboring countries, such as Sweden and Finland, brought to the point of questioning the policy of neutrality.
Russia is going through a long period of economic stagnation: the country's GDP has not yet recovered from the violent contraction that occurred in 2014-15 and even in 2022, in the absence of a war, it will be 30% lower than in 2013. If the Italian inflation, at 3,9% in December, seemed high to you, know that in Russia it was 8,4%. More than double… For the first time, between 2020 and 2021, the per capita GDP of the Chinese has exceeded that of the Russians, who are a tenth. Recall that the minimum wage for Ivan Ivanov is less than 150 euros per month and that the average salary is 550 euros / month. If in a moment of exponential growth, such as that between 1999 and 2013, the population was ready to turn a blind eye to the lack of certain freedoms of expression, the brazen enrichment of the leader's friends and the corruption and inefficiency of the machine. public administration, now it becomes more and more difficult to digest all this at a time when growth has obviously jammed and many families have to give up on discretionary expenses and / or postpone the essential ones.
The idea of a "new Russian empire" for now is based only on the deployment of troops in bases rented from countries in search of financial resources (Cuba, Africa, etc.) or intent on emerging from almost total isolation (Venezuela): the CSTO itself, far from being a new Warsaw Pact, appears increasingly shaky, as well illustrated by the useless intervention in Kazakhstan, to which President Tokayev terminated resolutely and without too many pleasantries, and above all by the conflict of a day and a night between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, a truly indecent sight. The faithful Belarus remains, the sweetheart of all time.
In conclusion, the feeling of "NATO encirclement" may not be entirely unwelcome, as a justification for the need for internal stability.
Washington has everything to gain from terror in Europe.
After the apparent Afghan disaster, with the seizure of power by former Taliban enemies, he demonstrates to the allies an important geopolitical activism and, at least apparently, that America is not disinterested in an area even if it is no longer central to American interests: in this sense, it gives visibility to a president, Biden, to the minimum of satisfaction in the polls and, often times, really not "on the piece"
It shakes up the European status quo in an Atlantic sense: after centuries of neutrality, Sweden is increasingly tempted to join NATO, finding itself more and more often violated in its air and naval spaces by Russia, while Finland is reconsidering its neutral position , so as not to find herself alone again in the face of the Russian bear and Hungary is prevented from getting too close to Moscow.
At the same time, the European allies, frightened by a war but above all by the risk of losing Russian gas, instead of thinking about building their own energy independence, turn to the USA for supplies and mediations with pro-American emirs, thus also favoring the traditional British aversion to welding of a strategic axis between Moscow and Berlin, which for two hundred years has been the guiding star of the Foreign Office.
The consequences go beyond the European area: China finds itself the "new silk road" blocked in the final stretch, the one that unites Asia to Europe through the Russian-Ukrainian steppes.
Finally, the effect affects - more than others, to tell the truth - Turkey prevented from getting too close to Russia and Ukraine itself, which with the possible (or rather: probable?) Direct occupation of the Donbass by Russian forces it would turn into a Washington client state forever.
In conclusion, a war by mistake?
Here, then, is why Zelenski appears so worried: the crisis does not even benefit Ukraine a little, especially from an economic point of view, and it does not seem so firmly in the hands of the two players. One mistake is enough and Ukraine or half the world could be at war with Russia. After all, in 1914 before World War I began, the King of England, the Tsar of Russia and the Emperor of Germany called each other Georgie, Niki and Willy, and although tensions arose and their countries were sometimes on the verge of fighting each other, they did not fail to consult. Yes, because all three were first cousins to each other. The leaders we have now, however, are not even distantly related.
Image: flightradar24
