The future of Syria and the Great Absent: Europe!

(To Alessandro Rugolo)
28/10/18

As announced in early September, the international meeting on the future of Syria was held in Istanbul on October 27: Russia, Turkey, France and Germany sitting around the table of decisions.

The first objective was to ensure the maintenance of the fragile ceasefire and promote the creation of the buffer zone around Idlib, but the interests at stake are quite different. The meeting follows another appointment by just a few months where the protagonists were only partially different: Russia, Turkey and Iran.

The interests at stake are enormous. Influence, weapons, oil, gas, ports on the Mediterranean, stability of the area and infighting ...
On the part of Russia, it is important to increase its influence on the Eastern Mediterranean by the sea in Syrian waters but also the economic interests linked to the promise to build the first nuclear power plant in Turkey and thus extend the nuclear technology market to a country of 80 millions of inhabitants.

On the part of Turkey, the need to stabilize the border area but also the awareness of having an important role as a bridge between Russia and Western powers; let's not forget that Turkey, despite the controversy, is always part of NATO.

In the background also the acquisitions of armaments have their importance, Turkey is waiting to receive the anti-missile system S-400, just from Russia, a system that should be delivered half way through 2019 with great disappointment of the USA.

But what about France and Germany?
The presence of the two countries is certainly more difficult to explain.
Of course, the interest in the stabilization of the region is strong for both, both from an economic and a military point of view, in particular for the access to oil and gas resources present in the area and which have previously pushed rash actions that they have destabilized Libya and continue to keep the whole East in chaos. Germany has its interests in supporting Russia, just as France has its interests in supporting the USA, economic interests and field choices, all understandable ... but what about the Great Absentee, Europe?

It is probably in the Great Absent that we need to look for the hidden motivations of the presence of France and Germany, considered not so singularly, but as the engine of Europe. Whatever the reason, Europe is a very thin figure in front of the great of the world.

Where are the aspirations to become something more than a simple "regulatory body", seen by many countries mainly as a brake on development and exclusively as a producer body more or less useless but absolutely inadequate when it comes to making important decisions?
Until when Europe will be missing from the tables that count?
When will it be understood that the European Union is not an institution that lives on its own life but that must be of some use to the member countries, if we want to avoid the Brexit, Franxit, Italexit and so on?

And then, the lack of a strong Europe means the presence, sometimes cumbersome, of Western friends but also Oriental ...

We are waiting. For now let's be content with seeing only two "representatives" at the table of decisions.

(photo: Kremlin)