The geostrategic situation in the Middle East has long seen an increasing challenge for hegemony in the region of the three middle powers of the area: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. The iron arm fits in on the one hand in the secular rivalry between Sunnis (Saudi Arabia and Turkey) and Shi'ite (Iran), on the other hand in the context of the global confrontation between the United States and the Russian-Chinese axis.
The explosion of all these rivalries has found 2011 its main battlefield in Syria, where civil war became a proxy-war. But these Middle Eastern actors are today, precisely because of the desire to expand their supremacy and control the "backyard" to face other asymmetrical wars, where their powerful military apparatus is often held in shock by irreducible opponents and all- other than post-heroic.
In particular, Saudi Arabia, the great mother of the Sunni front led by a broad coalition of Arab states, has been increasingly overwhelmed in Yemen during the last two years in the conflict between the Yemeni government and Shiite Shiite rebels Houti, alongside the faithful to Old President Saleh and the Hezbollah militia.
The US-backed Saudi coalition - while the Houti are supported by Iran and Russia - aims to renew its significant presence in the Red Sea, although the United States has been increasingly detached from the Mediterranean and Gulf they are able to define together with the partner a truly winning strategy. But not having the US alternatives valid to Saudi Arabia as a top ally for Middle Eastern politics, the Yemeni civil war has now become a proxy-war at all.
Thus, the mighty Ryadh militaries fail to have the right to rebel, despite thousands of Eurofighter bombings Typhoon, F-15C / D Eagle, F-15E (S) Strike Eagle e Tornado IDS Saudi. MBT M1 does not appear to be resolved either Abrams Books, MLRS launchers and AH-64 Apache put in front of the army. The problem is the usual: they continue to hit the fixed positions with the resulting result of massacring civilians, while guerrillas continue to move elsewhere.
The Houti, backed by the Yemeni forces remaining loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, however, have estimated forces beyond the 150.000 men, but much less armed than the Saudis, who are alongside both contractors and less-available and fighting Arab coalition troops .
The "Decisive Storm" operation, namely the Yemen's offensive to prevent the Houti from reaching Aden, involves not only Saudi aircraft (more than 100), but also Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar (until May) and Bahrain, for a total of other 80 hunters and bombers. The last loss is in the 13 last September when a Saudi Eurofighter crashed for technical reasons during a CAS mission killing the pilot.
Houti's response did not fail, through surface-surface missiles, Scud and Tochka, which seemed to come from the arsenals of previous Yemeni governments.
US direct intervention, however, is concentrated against the nearly 4.000 al Qaeda guerrillas in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), with the intervention of the Navy SEAL and the use of cruise drones and missiles, and against ISIS more than a few hundred guerrillas, and on whose positions, the hard American attack is being triggered these days.
The civil war has already cost the lives of more than 10.000 civilians.
The ruthlessness of Saudi intervention has not produced the result hoped for by the young heir to the throne Mohammed bin Salman, head of the armed forces. The rebels have not been crushed and the risk of stalemate is growing steadily, despite the abundance of men and the means employed and the growing losses hidden in the Arab and Middle East public opinion.
The humanitarian emergency is making dramatic, so that in July the World Health Organization confirmed that over 500.000 people are affected by a cholera epidemic in place. The food situation is certainly critical, with over three million malnutrition. But in spite of these destructions and the rich resources, taming the Houti is proving to be a very difficult exercise and Ryadh's victory seems far away. The nightmare of a Saudi Vietnam becomes more and more real.
Prof. Arduino Paniccia
President of ASCE - International School of Economics in Venice and Professor of Strategic Studies
