The slogan of the so-called "Arab Spring" sounds ominously familiar in the Europe of the Yellow Vests, the Five Stars and the Podemos: Ash-shaʻb yurīd isqāṭ an-niẓām (in Arabic: الشعب يريد إسقاط النظام), that is, "the people want to fall of the regime ". Imitating their peers in Tunisia and Egypt, eagerly followed for two months on television and on social media, on March 6, 2011 young hands smeared with this writing some walls in Daraa, an ancient and very arid agricultural city in southern Syria, al border with Jordan. The local secret police - with solicitude - arrested - depending on the sources - 10, 12 or 15 boys between the ages of 10 and 15, giving them a treatment that according to the "testimonies" of the opponents included a close interrogation, beating blood, torn nails and torture with cigarettes, all under the smug gaze of General Atef Najeeb, cousin of President Bashar al-Assad. The story - which given the sinister fame of the Syrian Baathist regime and its precedents, was believed to be credible, even if not true - made the rounds of families and clans: that is enough, to make Syria explode, with the largest demonstrations taking place in Aleppo today March 15th eight years ago ...
Here, we are not interested in telling you what happened, but trying to understand - in summary - who won and who lost, but above all how consolidated the positions of the winners and the losers. To do this, we will use a comparative method: in short, if you were driving the Fiat Panda yesterday and today you are driving around with the Mercedes CLS, it means that your situation needs to be improved. Understanding how sustainable the new situation is, it almost belongs to metaphysics: no geopolitical or mathematician expert would have bet a butt on the almost contemporary fall of Hosni Mubarak's regimes in Egypt, Ben Ali in Tunisia and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, as well as on the fact that to implode, in the general chaos, would be Syria, instead of Lebanon or Iraq itself.
The dismantling of a state invented at the table
Meanwhile, we begin by saying that the structure of the region of the Levant decided at the table by the winners of the First World War on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire was definitively defeated: in fact, through the Treaty of Sevres (1920) France had received the vilayets of Damascus and Aleppo, the northern part of Lebanon (the current Syrian coastal strip) and the Zoracish side of Zor. In short, Syria was a real patchwork! It is a mystery how this territory has remained for almost 90 years intact, despite the profound ethnic and religious differences within it. Now, with the return of the Turks in the North and with the "vitality" of Kurdish self-government in the North-East, it seems difficult, almost impossible, to imagine the reunification of Syria.
Erdogan saves the founder's tomb
The Turks intervened for 8 years in the Syrian affairs for political, economic reasons, of "neo-Ottoman" political design but also - and above all - identity: the Kobane region hosts, in fact, the Süleyman Şah Türbesi, the tomb of the grandfather of founder of the Turkish nation; according to the Ankara treaty of 1921 between Turkey and France this mausoleum is "part of the Turkish territory", a status sanctioned by the perennial presence of the flag of the crescent. If you ever happen to meet some Turkish people who see Erdogan ... with the moon sideways, don't expect to find him uneasy about the Kobane question: for the Turks he represents a non-negotiable element. On the field, we can certainly say that they have won and on all fronts, also because they challenged Putin's Russia and forced her to follow their line, that of blessing the military occupation of a wide security range ; after which, they forced the Americans to choose between them and the Kurds, leaving these last orphans of their protectors, and, last but not least, from the political and military affair of the Islamic State they came out no more filthy and no cleaner than the same Americans, Saudis, Qatari, etc.
Moscow "forced" to win
Putin - a new "King, hesitates" - 4 delayed years before finding himself forced to intervene to help the Syrian "client", before the Alawis region was invaded by Daesh; then he risked making a barbina figure in Palmira, but he finally saved the Moscow-Alawiti firm. In doing so, he found himself, for the first time, a leader like Erdogan who, instead of being subjected to the reckless incursions of Russian fighters, intent on testing reaction, defense and self-control, like the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Baltic do made to shoot down the aircraft, without too much hesitation. In short, he pushed Moscow into the corner like Kennedy with Khrushchev: dear Russia, or are you ready to wage a devastating international war or show me that you have bluffed so far. In the end, he won at the cost of finding himself projected into a region he does not love, fearing its toxicity for Russian national interests. One thing, in short, is to defend the Russian bases: it is another thing to act as a policeman in the Middle East, a game too expensive for the political and economic dimensions of present-day Russia.
The Kurds "between colors that are suspended"
What about the Kurds? The game is still open. If Putin has to fear contagion and Erdogan has to defend non-negotiating interests, the Kurdish nation has a historic opportunity in Syria to become an independent state. But they also know that they are facing two adversaries (Erdogan and the Alwaites) who will pose a mortal challenge by joining their forces. To understand each other, a bit like London did for three hundred years, trying to avoid at any cost that his two biggest enemies joined together. As for Americans, it is not known how much they will take their former ally seriously in the future. We must consider, however, that with the oil of eastern Syria the Kurds will be able to get supplies of modern weapons from anyone ...
Uncle Sam has new friends in Syria
The Americans up to the 2011 in Syria only had a handful of spies. Now, the Turks observe with a foot and a half in the country, Israel that presses as hard as ever on Damascus, the Kurds who "on demand" can once again become allies and some groups of "democratic rebels" with a long beard ready to give a hand. They went from having a used Panda to a decent Mercedes, for real!
Iran: after certain victories ...
If the Moscow-Alawiti "company" has not disappeared before the 2015, the merit is of Tehran that has shown its strength in Syria, in defense of the only ally (Bashar and its clan) that has in the region. And maybe in the world. But is it possible that in Iran there is not a Sadat who has some strategic intelligence? Half victories like these must serve to consolidate, not to prepare for other conflicts, also because the regime breathes with difficulty.
Israel: my enemy's enemies are my friends
Now the Syrian Alawite regime must fight on several fronts: Turks, Islamists, Kurds ... You can bet that in the parts of Jerusalem, delighting in the transition from a luxury compact to a Bentley, the Kurd is being learned. As for the Iranians and Hezbollah in Syria, the weakness of Bashar's anti-aircraft defenses will not prevent them from being sent to the Creator whenever they pose a threat. And in the scenario in which the Russians provided Damascus with the S400 defense systems as part of the Moscow-Alawiti firm, such a transaction could prove commercially bad business, if Kheil HaAvir was able to puncture them ...
Will Lebanon be able to take advantage of it?
Syria seems to suffer divine justice for all the misdeeds perpetrated for generations in the land of the cedars. Will the Lebanese be able to take advantage of this strategic advantage or will they still behave like Renzo's capons? Better not to dwell too much, because everything is unpredictable, "Levantine".
The Islamic State: brutal idiots in power
Imbeciles as well as monstrous criminals. They built, in a short time and with the fame of their aggressiveness, an entity almost 200.000 square km, with a statist and primitive economy, slaughtering the most productive minorities of Syria and Iraq as 21st century Stalinists. They destroyed a cultural heritage to replace it with nothing. They made themselves beautiful on the web, convinced they could assert themselves with truculent videos and obsessive propaganda. They have nothing left. From hell, Osama bin Laden must shake his head in the face of this failure of his Islamist critics.
Bashar, a political talent
Bashar and his clan are survivors. A real case of Darwinism. The former ophthalmologist showed first-rate political skills. Will he die in his bed like his father? Meanwhile, he owes everything to Iran and Russia. How much will the bill be paid?
Riad does not earn anything
Nothing they had in the 2011, they have nothing today. The scorn of the Turkish presence in Syria is the same as the stabilization of the premiership of the pro-Saudi Hariri jr. in Beirut. The modus vivendi with Israel - if lasting - will come at a cost.
Doha is worse than Riad
They also had nothing in the 2011. Now they have perhaps even less than nothing, because they are tightened by the Saudi-Emirate health cordon and are only gasping thanks to the Turks. Too ambitious and unwise.
Hezbollah has won but ...
Do you guys from the party of God, if you follow us, have German Protestants present in Switzerland? Read the story a bit and you will know how to make an important victory.
European states: worse than going at night
All in no particular order, without serious initiatives, without affecting the field. They only knew how to take blows from the Islamic State, reacting when the US moved. Ridiculous.
The Arab states of the Gulf beat a blow
Apart from Qatar, they have proven to be willing boys, completely lacking in talent but rich in family. They have a great future behind their backs.
Net of the fact that no one, not even Daesh, has yet been completely excluded from the game in Syria, only one big loser emerges: the one who wanted to free himself in the slogan of the Arab Spring, that is the Syrian people, regardless of political positions, ethnicity and religion. In the 2010 they had a low per capita GDP ($ 2.807) but capable of growing by 100% in the previous six years and a life expectancy of 75 years. After eight years, every Syrian has a GDP of just $ 1.100 and a life expectancy of less than 69 years. They will tell you that the culprit is, in turn, the regime, radical Islamism, Russia, Obama or, as always, Israel. The people are a bit too, if it is true as it is true that Egypt and Tunisia have not fallen into this hell. The truth, in the end, is that the culprits and innocents in Syria are both underground.
Photo: Giorgio Bianchi
