Sicily (and Italy) must not fear a missile attack, but a massive wave of refugee landings that could bring the entire economy to its knees. In some ways, an attack far more effective than that represented by the "Wunderwaffen" accumulated in Gaddafi's deposits.
Meanwhile, it would be appropriate to make a lucid premise: the fundamentalists of Isis do not possess any amphibious assault force. And, of course, the boats of hope can certainly not be considered as landing craft.
History teaches that to carry out any amphibious action it is necessary to possess air supremacy. With the proper proportions, we could think of the 'Sea Lion' operation designed by the Third Reich to invade England. Despite the forces assembled in occupied France, Nazi Germany never managed to impose air supremacy so as to guarantee (even if there would then be another obstacle called the Royal Navy ...) the safe transit of the landing forces. So, unless ISIS decides to turn into a last generation army (buying from Russians, Americans and Chinese), the chances of an invasion are zero.
Libya is a country in disarray. The lukewarm attempts to establish a government capable of supplanting the bloody and grim regime of Gaddafi have been worthless. The fundamentalists, therefore, acting in concrete undisturbed are preparing to conquer the entire country, sowing terror and continuing to ring enemies like Egypt that a few hours ago gave way to aerial bombardments.
A rain of missiles on Sicily?
ISIS is looking for military depots that once belonged to the Libyan Armed Forces.
The Libyan army, at least on paper, during the Gaddafi regime was considered in possession of large quantities of war material, mainly of Soviet production. The same equipment, however, was already considered under the regime of the Rais as unusable and obsolete. So, if they still existed, the weapons of the previous regime would be nothing but a technological expression of the sixties and seventies.
Tanks could no doubt make throat (they were around 800 just before the war, I went down to 300 after the end of hostilities) T-62, T-72 and T-54 / 55. However, it is necessary to understand how many of these vehicles are still functioning and where they will find the fuel in addition to the logistic apparatus necessary to make an armored force operational. In the deposits, there may still be some Sam systems belonging to the Strela family, but even in this case, we are talking about data on paper.
What we do know is that before the war Libya possessed an army of forty thousand men equipped with armament of the seventies.
Finally, the Scud missiles, much publicized by the Caliphate. It is known that Gaddafi, bought in total about 400 short-range ballistic missiles. How many are really working, to date, is a mystery. Certainly expect propaganda footage with assembled missiles transported through the streets of the conquered cities and with slogans typical of terrorists.
Beyond the rhetoric, however, those missiles would not even be able to get up in the air. The specifications of the Scud-B entered, in service in the 1961, have long been known. It is in service only in some Middle Eastern countries, even if for almost half a century it has been the most famous tactical bomb in the world and "first gift" for every dictator.
The range of the B version is 280 / 300 km while the conventional head is 800 Kg.
It can also embark nbc warheads. The terrorists should find the Scuds left in the stores for decades and return somebody still working. Then they should supply it, arm it and throw it.
Of course, we don't even consider the Aegis system always on patrol in the Mediterranean or the American satellite and ground defensive screen that in Sicily has some of the most important bases in Europe or submarines stationed to cover possible targets.
In the propaganda texts branched out by ISIS for the one advertised as the "storm of missiles to Sicily" we also talk about the M75 missiles. Their twenty-pound head and their 80 km radius do not scare anyone.
It is clear that we are facing a kind of propaganda for internal use. Examples are not lacking: Germany in the final stages of the first war, Iran and North Korea today present themselves to their own people as world superpowers. But reality is another thing.
The matter would be much more serious if the Isis succeeded in conquering Saudi Arabia or Iran (which, however, has modern equipment). We are, however, on the field of mere conjectures.
ISIS, in fact has never faced a modern army, does not have an aeronautics or a fleet. It expands, however, with a certain speed in the countries in crisis, exploiting the weaknesses of those governments that have never had real control over the territory.
Certainly, against the 200 thousand men of the Caliphate, little or nothing can the special Western departments deployed in Iraq and that, despite the work done, certainly can not win with an absolutely overwhelming and unsustainable numerical proportion.
We need an awareness of the subjugated peoples, a large-scale Western armed intervention (the US will not do another Vietnam) or the rage of the neighboring countries affected.
Perhaps the latter is the only solution to block terrorists.
So, Italy does not fear anything?
Absolutely not, because if on the one hand it is true that as long as we have the Americans on our side we will be safe, on the other Uncle Sam can do nothing against the Italian reception policy (perhaps the most permissive in the world) towards those refugees who escape from their homeland.
Thousands of arriving refugees could represent an even more lethal weapon than a missile for what in all respects could be a systematic case capable of destabilizing the Italian economic system. And this is what the terrorists know.
Filling the boot of immigrants, starting from Sicily, is a subtle but easy assault operation.
A clear example of an asymmetrical attack without firing a shot, but that would be able to bring the economy to its knees.
Without considering, finally, the danger of some dormant cells that could hide among the refugees. In the end, the most devastating weapon on the planet is certainly not the atomic bomb, but the single man wearing a belt stuffed with explosives and bolts and who gets torn apart inside a church or on a square full of people. The perfect smart fragmentation grenade.
If we consider that among those who disembark in Sicily many are losing their tracks, we can really say not to fear the missiles, but another threat much more real and difficult to trace.
