The September 22 was a bloody day for Iran. During the celebrations for the commemoration of the 38th anniversary of the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88, the traditional military parade of the Iranian armed forces (Artesh) and the Guardian Corps of the Islamic Revolution (Pasdaran) in the southern city of Ahvaz she was attacked by a commando of terrorists who opened fire on both the military and guardians in the parade and on the public attending the event. The budget was heavy because, in addition to the 5 members of the terrorist commando, 25 people were lost, with other 70s injured. The attack was claimed both by the National Resistance of Ahvaz (a local separatist group) and ISIS, although there are still many doubts about both claims.
Iran is not new to terrorist actions even in style, having been for a long time the subject of the attacks of the Mojahedin of the Iranian people (terrorist group of anarcho-Islamic-communist inspiration) and of various movements of separatist matrix in the Arab areas, Kurdish and the country's bells. However in the last two years, with the rise of Donald Trump in the White House and the escalation of the confrontation between the United States, Israel and the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf on one side and Iran and its Shiite allies on the other (the also light of the now inevitable final victory of the so-called "Resistance Axis" in Syria), the overt and covert actions aimed at destabilizing the government of the Islamic Republic have definitely taken on a much more incisive profile.
The first of these attacks against the structures of the Iranian state took place on 7 June 2017 when 5 terrorists, described as members of a cell headed by ISIS, carried out a double attack against the Iranian Parliament and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini. Also on that occasion all the terrorists were eliminated, but not before they had the chance to kill 18 people and to hurt other 52s. The Iranian response came a few days later, in the night between the 17 and 18 June, when in the Operation Laylat al-Qadr (Night of Power), the Aerospace Force of the Guardian Corps of the Islamic Revolution launched 6 missile land -terra "Zolfaghar", updated version of the well-tested missile Fateh-110 (photo opening), against command centers, troop concentrations, logistic centers and weapons production laboratories located in the Mayadin area, at that time one of the last places in Syria still in the hands of ISIS, after receiving information from intelligence from the "Force Quds" (the special forces and intelligence of the "Pasdaran") and from the secret services of Damascus. According to official Iranian sources, the missiles hit all targets by annihilating them and provoking more than 170 victims among ISIS ranks. Already then, several analysts both in the West and in Israel noted that, net of the objectives in and of themselves, the Iranian attack aimed to send a warning to those who are perceived as enemies of Iran and its government. .
The years between the 2016 and the 2018 then saw a dramatic increase in guerrilla activities by various secessionist Kurdish movements, in particular the PJAK (Party for Free Life in Kurdistan), the PDKI (Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan), the PAK (Kurdistan Freedom Party) and the Komalah (Society of Revolutionary Workers of Iranian Kurdistan) against military targets and civil administration in the entire area of settlement of the Iranian Kurdish population. In many cases the actions of the rebels have been resolved in nothing but in others, as in the case of the attack at the Marivan border crossing, 21 2018 July, the effects were much more serious, with 10 Pasdaran remained killed and other wounded 8s. This time the Iranian retaliation was launched in broad daylight, the September 8, again from the Aerospace Force of the Guardian Corps of the Islamic Revolution through the launch of 7 missiles Fateh-110, this time belonging to the basic version, against the headquarters of the secessionist movements mentioned above located in the city of Koy Sanjaq, in the Autonomous Region of Iraqi Kurdistan. In this case the Iranian retaliation provoked 18 dead and wounded 50, all among the ranks of the Kurdish secessionists.
However, the worst terrorist attack was undoubtedly the one mentioned above in the September 22 (photo). Although Ahvaz is located very far from the centers of Iranian power, the targets chosen (the military and guardians in the parade) and the anniversary (the anniversary of the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War) have particularly hit both the elite and the people Iranian that in this situation have seen a repropose of the aggression of the "Arab and Sunni world" within the borders of the Transhahr (the perceived Persian geopolitical and cultural space). Again, the attack was followed by Iranian retaliation, once again entrusted to the Aerospace Force of the Guardian Corps of the Islamic Revolution, and targeting ISIS's headquarters in the Hajin area of Syria. Unlike the two previous occasions, however, the Iranian response turned out to be more elaborate and came in two waves. The first one was still a missile launch, in 6 number, but in addition to the already widely tested Zolfaghar, this time the Iranians have decided to use at least one Qiam 1 missile for the first time.
Unlike the Zolfaghar and of his predecessor Fateh-110 which are essentially large "artillery beams", the Qiam 1 is in effect a ballistic missile and its successful use represents a significant step forward in the development of this technology by Iran. But the classic “icing on the cake” came with the second wave consisting of a squadron of UAVs (unmanned aircraft) of the Saegheh type (following photo) which attacked the remaining targets using Sadid precision missiles; here we are at the absolute novelty. Entered service with the Iranian military in October 2016, the Saegheh is the Iranian copy of the US RQ-170 Sentinel UAV of which the Iranians managed to take over after a manual electronic warfare operation in December of the 2011. After analyzing the aircraft for several years, the Iranians finally managed to copy it and inaugurate its mass production in the 2017. Not only that, while the original RQ-170 Sentinel can only be used in ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) missions, the Iranian Saegheh is equipped with an internal compartment capable of accommodating 4 Sadid devices, smart TV-guided bombs, and already widely used by Iranians in Syria and Iraq to support their governments against ISIS and other Islamist forces.
Iranian reprisals by means of missiles and drones occurred in the 2017 and 2018 are inscribed in the broader "deterrence in depth" strategy that Iran has decided to adopt over the last decade to overcome instability created in the Middle East as a result of US military interventions and the outbreak of the Arab Spring. The support given to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, direct and indirect aid to the Syrian and Iraqi governments in the Great Middle Eastern War and the increasingly massive involvement in civil wars in Afghanistan and Yemen are all elements of this strategy devised by the Commander of the Quds Force of the Guardian Corps of the Islamic Revolution, General Qasem Soleimani, apt to create great "buffer areas" around the Islamic Republic of Iran in such a way that the country is never again confronted a surprise attack on its territory as in the times of the Iran-Iraq War. On the basis of this imperative, the strategists of Tehran intend to reinforce the axis from the Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush, passing through Beirut-Damascus-Baghdad-Tehran-Kabul and on the other to encircle Israel and the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf through the offshoots of Yemen and the Gaza Strip.
It is not possible at the moment to say if and when Iran's strategy will succeed. Much will depend on the account moves that the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia will decide to oppose. There are also to consider the conflicting interests of Turkey, the other large Sunni country present in the area that in turn aims to create a sphere of influence in the Islamic world. In any case we can say right now that, with its "missile and drone diplomacy", Iran has wanted to signal to all regional opponents and other international actors involved in the "Great Game" in the Middle East that it will not arrive never compromise where its national security is seriously jeopardized.
(photo: Hossein Velayati / Xinhua / IRNA / web)
