The theme of global order has always been of fundamental importance in the philosophical-political debate. And starting from the second post-war period, it has acquired more interest, so as to require increasingly integrated and systemic analyzes.
An example would be the report Global Risks of the World Economic Forum (more). After more than ten years of careful analysis, also for the 2017 the Davos Forum has identified a dense network of risk situations that generates a very dangerous political-social polarization. Degenerative dynamics related to the economic, environmental, geopolitical, social and technological sectors and which can create further chaos in the international arena.
Without a doubt an objective and shared definition of "global order" is still much debated. In any case, the central problem is to understand if and how the global actors (especially the state ones) can choose to interact and cooperate for a common good. This is counterbalanced by a fragility of the international arena, which still lacks a well-structured and effective system. Specifically, making use of a principle of free adherence and participation, “paradoxes” that can compromise local and regional stability inevitably feed themselves.
In this climate of progressive disintegration, any analytical approach may appear to be a vain utopia. A pessimistic attitude that ends up feeding so-called "identity" forms (v.articolo).
On the contrary, it is interesting to observe NATO's adaptive posture in the face of the new challenges of the world order. Anchored in the founding principles of the Alliance, after Wales 2014, parallel to the measures for the eastern flank, NATO has also focused attention on the southern front.
Since the root causes and the effects from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are increasingly interconnected, the central idea is to contribute to the world order and strengthen the system of international cooperation. In this historical phase of "De-globalization" and of high fluidity, where the masses can be easily influenced and terrified, the main challenge is to avoid further deterioration and at the same time reverse the trend.
To do this, the process is always the same: analyzing, understanding, acting and evaluating. A continuous cycle, which NATO has been experiencing for years. And in order to increase its effectiveness and incisiveness, a regional hub was designed. A new capacity that will soon be active in the Naples area.
All information on the MENA region will flow to this center, where they will be corroborated by a pool of analysts and capitalized through intense activity of Liaison with non-NATO actors (Universities, Research Centers, Partners, Think Tanks, ... and IOs / NGOs). This should allow not only to improve the understanding of the threats and challenges coming from the southern side of NATO, but also to suggest the appropriate intervention policies, to be undertaken and developed together with other actors of the international arena.
The keystone of the Hub could be the Comprehensive Approach. A "philosophy" with great potential, whose embryos date back to Sun Tzu. A methodology in continuous evolution, which cannot be confined to a specific field. In this context, the NATO Hub project could be the beginning of a new experimental phase, aimed at improving the Comprehensive Approach, not only in the military perspective.
The modern systemic logic ASCOPE - PMESII is the basis for military planners (at all levels). From the real situation the main "facts" are identified, and their interconnection allows to derive "considerations".
Numerous systems for collecting and managing information are available on the market, which facilitate the logical organization of facts. The same applies to their interpretation. However, the centrality of human resources still remains so. And the added value of the assessment activity becomes maximum thanks to the joint participation of civil and military experts.
Nowadays there are many Research Centers that provide meticulous analyzes aimed at understanding the issues affecting the MENA region. Hence the need to involve them and strengthen a common path in the perspective of Comprehensive Approach.
But how to ensure and optimize this interaction?
A first step to be addressed is the "language". A common base that allows to integrate civil, military, national and international tools, terminologies and methodologies for a common purpose. Taking into account its past and its evolution, it is very likely that an aid can come from the "Game Theory". Based on the thoughts of prof. Aumann (photo), one cannot do without a descriptive-predictive paradigm. A tool that, in the field of the "futuristic", is capable of evaluating the possible choices-actions of the single actors and their consequences-reactions in the reference system. It is not a rigid and limiting schematism, on the contrary it is a way to help the understanding of a complex system and also facilitate decision-making. In this sense, tables, graphs, trends, as well as embellishing analytical products, become very useful to support choral actions - full spectrum to achieve a common good.
With reference to NATO Hub, a practical application of this methodology (integrated by the principles of the "Game Theory") could be the analysis of the degree of connection between terrorist and criminal organizations, and their impact on the migration phenomenon from North Africa. On this topic, for example, “enne” can be developed for future scenarios (at the micro or macro level) and associated with the relative levels of probability and stability hazard. These assessments, enriched by the experience of analysts, constitute the reference framework for formulating accurate "recommendations", which obviously cannot be limited to traditional economic and political instruments!
In conclusion, therefore, the NATO Hub initiative should not be understood as a mere capacity of Early Warning. More generally, the Hub is intended as an innovative laboratory, from which NATO can benefit not only for the Middle East and North Africa.
Furthermore, in a positive and long-term view, these benefits could be extended on a global scale. Indeed, the Hub could guarantee the development of a global logic aimed at identifying global risks and threats. At the same time, this center could strengthen the premises for a more concrete collective commitment to the world order!
