On Tuesday 6 November 2018, the first "Half Mandate Elections" were held in the United States of America, the so-called "mid-term elections" of the Tump era. To be at stake were 35 on 100 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. At the same time, elections were held in 39 between states and territories to nominate as many governors.
Although the results of these elections are known and have now been widely assimilated by the public, both at home and abroad, it is necessary here to reflect on the medium-long term effects, in both the internal and foreign geopolitical scenarios, and the results. of these elections could have on the work of President Donald John Trump.
As is well known to most, the medium-term policies of all the White House tenants have always been calibrated with a view to guaranteeing their re-election. For Trump, this necessity assumes an even "vital" dimension. We must not forget that the president currently in charge is at the center of numerous inquiries, among which the notorious "Russia-gate" stands out. The implications of this scandal, once it was established beyond a reasonable doubt, would be immense enough to fear theimpeachment and Trump's arrest for "collusion with a foreign enemy power". In practice, however, despite the "mid-term" elections handed over the House of Representatives to the Democrats, the Republicans succeeded in taking the blow and even strengthening their position; such "partition" of the Congress rooms prevents any possibility of impeachment. Not only that, by rereading carefully the history of the United States, it is possible to realize that, to date, no president has ever been thrown out through impeachment.
What Trump really risks, therefore, is to be tried and sentenced only after the end of his presidential term, when he can no longer enjoy the "protection" guaranteed by the importance of the position he occupies. That's why Trump has already begun to "approach" the topics of the upcoming 2020 election campaign. If he were to succeed in the task of regaining control of the entire Congress and if the qualified majority of individual states were led by republican governors, Trump could even be tempted to launch constitutional reform in order to abolish the limit of the two presidential terms, hoping to stay in power even beyond the 2024 and thus avoid reckoning with justice. Although this scenario may seem extreme, it would still be a grave mistake to underestimate the "survival instinct" of the incumbent president, as well as his ruthlessness. Obviously, in order to achieve all these ideal goals, Trump needs to expand his electoral support base, in an even bigger way than the 2016 elections. We can therefore deduce that while in the economic field it is possible to see a multiplication of pressure actions on the Federal Reserve to start a massive "stimulus to the economy" operation, in the geopolitical head, Trump will try in any case, beyond his often disturbing bellicist rhetoric, to avoid that the United States remain involved in some armed conflict of vast proportions or international crisis with unpredictable outcomes. If anything, in view of the White House's tenant and part of his advisors, it is necessary that the United States face a serious process of "reshaping" its presence in the various operating theaters of the "world chess", especially in places worth secondary strategic like Africa or, in some ways, the Middle East itself.
If this partial "disengagement" from the world will have a positive impact on global rebalancing, we can only know it with time.
(photo: US Navy)