The leadership on the Libya dossier lies with Italy. Trump has thus established, to our great satisfaction, the imminence of Taormina's G7.
Our government has been rightly pleased to have obtained from the new president of the United States the confirmation of a vision that sees us protagonists in Libya for its stabilization.
Very well. The point is: who tells him to the Russians?
Yes, because the Russians are back in the Mediterranean, in strength and to stay. The reconquest of Crimea, a historic launching pad for the Soviet Navy towards warm seas, then military action in Syria, the reactivation of the Tartus naval base, the construction of the Humaymim air base, destined to be significantly enlarged in the coming months, protected by AAW systems and guarded by a strong garrison of at least one battalion, it was only the beginning of the return to our sea of the Mediterranean Black Sea Fleet squadron that at the time of the Soviet Union was composed of about 50 ships and several nuclear submarines, as well as support vessels, etc. Russia now presents itself in the Mediterranean with a different Navy, no longer with a Fleet limited to maritime interdiction, in a key anti-aircraft carrier, but with an aeronaval instrument optimized for maritime control and ground force projection (power projection ashore). An example is the return of the aircraft carrier Kutzenotov (photo), in the future flanked by two large aircraft carriers from 70.000 tons under construction, a variety of surface and underwater platforms, capable of launching cruise missiles, in addition to massive investments in aviation and navy infantry.
The Mediterranean, which has always been the gateway to the East for Europe and a link with Africa, is at the center of important innovations that increase its strategic value. Two examples: the large deposits of natural gas between Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, to which are added those probably present in the lower Adriatic and the arrival of the new "silk road", still in search of its final destination, final junction towards continental Europe. Today it is disputed between Greece and Italy. Renzi and Gentiloni have done well to increase our relations with China in the last two years, because Greece, very active on maritime issues, is investing heavily in its ports, also to attract Chinese capital in their construction.
However, the bases in Syria are not sufficient to allow the Russian Navy to assume a dominant role in the Mediterranean, especially over a long-term horizon. It serves a strategically positioned base towards the entrance to the central Mediterranean. Libya is ideal for this purpose. Rich in sparsely populated reserves of oil and gas, in fact divided into three distinct geographical areas (Tripolitania, Cirenaica and Fezzan), with an ISIS presence perched in Derna, from which recently, despite the siege of the Haftar militia, is managed to inflict heavy losses on one of its air bases. Libya is also an entity without a central government, without a Western "custodian" of reference, able to put itself sideways, unlike, for example, Francophone Africa, "protected" by France. Here is that the Italian requests made to the UN to be able to operate in Libyan territorial waters, to remove any room for maneuver to the criminal organizations that manage the trafficking of human beings, it was precisely Russia that opposed, as well as has opposed, effectively, the passage of the EU operation Sophia, an Italian guide, to the training and protection phase, in favor of the Libyan Navy / Coast Guard, to be held in the territorial waters and in the Libyan ports. In memory, Russia also opposed Italian entry into Somali territorial waters in the context of piracy.
The visit of the Kutnetzov in Haftar it was a public declaration of Russian interest in the area, also for the benefit of Egypt which considers Eastern Libya, its area of influence. Therefore, Derna is probably the next Russian base. Derna has good depths, dominates the Sirte and its oil terminals and is close enough to Egypt. The fact that it is in ISIS's hands puts it on a silver plate in favor of Putin's goals. After his release, which will probably see the participation or at least the direct support of the Russian airborne instrument, the least that Haftar can do is deliver Derna to the Russians, also in view of its advance towards the west, to Tripoli. Further strengths for the Russian maritime strategy towards warm seas are, of course, the American disengagement towards the Pacific and the tension between the US and North Korea that gives room for maneuver to the Russians in exchange for a non-interference in the East.
Together with the operations of naval diplomacy need hard power, the Russians are moving in a coordinated way in terms of trade agreements. The Russian oil company Rosneft has in fact signed strategic agreements with the National Oil Corporation, the main Libyan company. In recent months, analyst Theodore Karasik said: "Russia is trying to enter Libya and condition its future. It is highly probable that the huge debt incurred during the Gaddafi era will be canceled through concessions"perhaps related to oil and weapons, other agreements have been signed with Israel and Egypt giving geographical continuity to the project of energy governance in the region.
Also for this reason (in addition to the historical internal structural weaknesses that slow down its external action), Italy has lost its freedom of action in Libya, despite Trump's statement in our favor. Al Sarraj will also pay the consequences of this weakness if we do not manage to quickly regain room for maneuver, with more incisive national initiatives, also to deal with the Russians from better positions, in the process of stabilization of Libya. A solid government in Libya would not be crucial only from an economic point of view, but it would be fundamental for the management of flows of migrants going to Italy. At the moment it is with the Russians that we will have to deal with it. That's why Gentiloni was so "expansive" towards Putin, calling him a key player for the Libyan question. It is a superpower that we need good and bad and with which we must have relationships. In line with this approach, Eni has already reached a first agreement with Roseneft. Cooperation with the Russians is therefore inevitable, we will have to see if the Russians will consider us a partner or just an annoying presence to be ousted.
With the arrival of Trump, the G7 highlighted it in a plastic way, we will be alone on the issue of control of migratory flows and in general on the question of the stabilization of Libya, if not for targeted counter-terrorism operations.
More generally, we will be alone in the Mediterranean to protect our national interests.
Unfortunately Italy pays the price of not having defined a wide-ranging maritime strategy. On the contrary, since the summer of the 2016 we have also withdrawn our ships from the central Mediterranean where 5 surface units were constantly operating and we have not even followed soft power / naval diplomacy, like those of the 30 ° naval group around Africa, despite the national foreign policy indicates, in Africa, the area of maximum national interest.
Both in the definition of the national military instrument, in progress in these days, and in the subdivision of resources for the use of the forces, the Ministry of Defense seems not to have the awareness of the maritime destiny of Italy, continuing in its protosabauda line, planning a further downsizing the Fleet, undermining the funds for the activities at sea, as never before in the post-war history, apparently indifferent to what happens outside our borders, as if the world went from Savoy, Piave, Adamello and the threshold of Gorizia.
Before risking being marginalized in Libya, it would be advisable to concretize our support to Al Sarraj, in a more convinced way, for example through a closer collaboration with the Marina Tripolina, also with coordinated operations in coastal / coastal waters, in addition to opening of hospitals and the joint management of refugee camps, to activate, among other things, humanitarian corridors under our supervision. More generally use our fleet in all its possible variations, because the security of the Mediterranean, its seabed, its marine environment, its economy, are, will be even more in the future, our main challenge and resource.
The action carried out by the Minister of the Interior (which at this stage is interpreting, due to the strength and political courage of its owner, also the role of the Defense) in Fezzan and Niger undoubtedly moves in the right direction. This action, carried out with incisiveness and political courage, even without waiting for the other European partners, will have significant consequences in the medium term, naturally if, after the elections, its line and its impulse find adequate confirmation.
The Black Sea fleet will once again become influential in the Mediterranean. The US and Russia seem to start sharing strategic spaces rather than contending them. After years of predictions we are comparing ourselves to the era of the multipolar world, in which traditional alliances risk being redefined from time to time, almost always at the expense of the weaker nations.
Admiral Giuseppe De Giorgi
(photo: Palazzo Chigi / MoD Fed. Russian / web)
