Holy Christmas (for the first time officially celebrated in Ukraine on December 25th and not January 7th) and the first rumors, still weak, of a possible peace conference in Switzerland in 2024 have led the most qualified analysts to recommend a possible direction to all NATO countries and, consequently, make assessments on what is happening and what is expected.
First of all, it must be firmly reiterated that Ukraine's struggle is not only in defense of its sovereignty and territory, but also in the name of the West, its values and its lifestyle, which Russia seeks to replace with an international system more "favorable" to dictatorships. At the end of 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have no intention of suspending Russia's aggression or seeking a negotiated solution on terms other than complete victory.
Today, the United States and its allies must help Ukraine prevent Russia from achieving a victory that would be disastrous for the people and country of Ukraine and threaten the future security of both the United States and its allies. This position should not be taken lightly, but rather the costs and benefits of a variety of US and NATO policy approaches should be thoroughly debated.
This war is at a critical point where decisions made by the United States and its NATO allies and partners will determine whether the outcome will be favorable to their interests or disastrous for Ukraine and the West.
The West must convince Moscow that time is not on its side and that American aid combined with continued European assistance will achieve the goal of repelling Russian forces. The hypothesized lack of leadership by the United States would create the conditions for a Russian victory and above all strong action in support of Ukraine at this point would substantially strengthen NATO cohesion. European NATO allies (Italy has just confirmed its position) have made important contributions to Ukraine's defenses and aspirations to become a member of the European Union (EU) and NATO. The EU's recent decision to start accession negotiations with Ukraine was an important step towards Ukraine's goal of joining Europe and the West. It is therefore necessary that European leaders and parliamentarians continue to provide their support. In many cases, European allies have been the first to supply certain categories of weapons, such as tanks and long-range missiles, and have incurred huge costs implementing sanctions against Russia and moving away from dependence on Russian energy.
Ukraine still declares itself resolute, but it is estimated that it does not have the means to obtain decisive results on the battlefield. Accordingly, the United States must accelerate the possible and difficult delivery of the long-range fighter aircraft and artillery that Ukraine needs to succeed and have a chance to end the conflict in its favor or at least in an honorable way.
If a substantial support plan is implemented starting in early 2024, Ukraine can be equipped with the capabilities needed to succeed perhaps by the end of the year. For most qualified analysts, not continuing US support for Ukraine would represent an enormous failure of bipartisan foreign and defense policy and would weaken American leadership internationally and in Europe.
It is important to underline that the reaffirmed support of the United States and Europe would send a strong message to People's China, Iran and other authoritarian regimes that aggression against their neighbors (Republic of China - Taiwan first and foremost) cannot succeed. A successful Ukrainian defense outcome in 2024 would have far-reaching effects, not only in Europe but globally. A contained and reduced-capacity Russian military cannot pose a direct threat to its neighbors in the years to come.
Aggressive and authoritarian regimes such as People's China, North Korea and Iran would therefore be "punished", not encouraged and consequently the stability of the international system and the rule of law would be strengthened. Additionally, global food security and supply chain disruptions would be alleviated. More importantly, the prospects of direct conflict with the Russian Federation could be seen as greatly reduced with a free Ukraine.
For these reasons, many urge members of the US Congress of both parties to recognize the fundamental importance of maintain and increase support for Ukraine, in the name of the interests of the United States and those of the international system more generally. Any other choice would represent a failure of American leadership, opening the door to a much more dangerous world in the future.
Furthermore, in the hoped-for possibility of convincing Moscow to activate a peace conference in Switzerland, Kiev must sit at the table in a position of strength. A Ukraine without constant and confirmed financial and military support would not have a good bargaining position to claim its rights, especially on the territorial level.
Moscow must know that, in the absence of an agreement, the conflict can continue and its outcome would go in Kiev's favor, even if at this moment some indicators deny this.
Re-establishing sustainable peace in Ukraine is the goal starting in 2024.
Photo: X (Christmas tree 6 kilometers from Bakhmut)
