Also this week we received many interesting comments on the state and the limits of the European Union, the theme suggested to readers a week ago. We leave the word to those who follow us with much love.
Italy as a victim of Europe from Maastricht onwards. It is a thesis that even some members of the yellow-green majority claim. If the treaties had been imposed on us, perhaps it would also be realistic: unfortunately, we signed them without our deputies even deigning to read them ...
(Reader who requested anonymity) The current crisis in Europe is the crisis of a political model created in the 1990, following the reunification of Germany. Wanted by Mitterand and Kohl, it had as a goal to be pursued the reduction of Italy to more mild councils (remembering that it was before France and the United Kingdom as wealth), preparing the enlargement to the former socialist countries and above all putting Germany again united and France on the same level. Now, with the exit of London without an agreement and with the government of change in Italy that refuses to agree for the budget with Brussels, the Union has two roads: either yields to national-identity pressures and takes a step back, weakening a lot the Euro, or continues hard and pure, at the cost of a net break with London and Rome, with the latter coming out of the Eurozone (and perhaps the EU) within a year. In the first scenario, things could go on like this for years, with the "Great Sick of Europe" Union, as was once said of the Ottoman Empire. In the second scenario, Italy and maybe Greece will be at war with Brussels. A financial and political war, from which they can go out liberated or occupied. Um, I meant commissariate.
The Parolin reader looks to the future of Europe through a short but detailed scenario, which to the writer seems all too realistic.
Year 2029. After ten years of very dark crisis, during which some countries had left (United Kingdom, Italy, Hungary and Poland) and others had joined (Norway after having exhausted the oil in the North Sea, Turkey after the carnation revolution of the after Erdogan), the European re-founding party has established itself in the European elections, whose program includes the establishment of a European federal republic on the model of the United States of America, with a president elected by the people and a single foreign policy. Health, education and social security will remain at the local level. Taxes will be decided and collected in Brussels. After the second default in a few years, European leaders discuss the possibility of turning Italy into a protectorate and commissariarne the government.
The Sergio Pession reader concentrates on the cultural limits of the integration process: on the other hand, the most widely spoken language as a native idiom is German (90 millions of speakers), which for historical reasons has no chance of being accepted as a single or prevalent language , while English (70 millions of native speakers and some hundreds of millions as a second language) is about to lose the country of origin, with Brexit. It's crazy to think about it, but the Union spends 1% of its budget in interpreting and translating!
Lively and bellicose Asian peninsula, as well as geopolitical continent has always been Europe. Sorted by an eagle, hovering in the light of the cross and setting in the swastika, now ne (ri) we see the stars of a night sky. Where every empire aimed to unify peoples with unique currency and language, half a dozen countries exhausted by centuries of wars, has made the German Marco the only currency, but the proud hinge multilingualism. Conceived to oppose the superpowers and project economic interests on near and far countries, Europe aims more at monetary values than identities. Less union of countries and more economic society, Europa Spa has swept hurriedly spent under the star carpet, engulfing / attracting neighboring states, perhaps expiring perhaps in a babylonia of languages and cultures. They would be rich, if the foundations were solid, but it is not. Too fast growth is the error of big companies, as the loss of identity is for the empires. Union or empire, everything is supported by profits to be shared, but with economic, humanitarian, demographic, and so on crises, ancient internal frictions re-emerge. Europa SpA with portfolio, but without heart or identity. Perhaps multilingualism was a mistake. With a European language for young generations equally with a real conscience, now we would have one more thing to unite, rather than one less. Ironically laid down with the language of the only country ever completely European as well as first out, I think it's late; without language and identity, the only ropes to keep everything together would seem to be those of the single currency. Rock rope under the storm, an uncomfortable noose around his neck or a BDSM tool? Thank you for this new challenge that you propose.
We had to reduce the text proposed by Marco, who paints three thrilling scenarios. However, interesting, also for the attention to the flows from Africa and the demographic aspect.
The future of the EU is linked to the impacts of Climate Change on Europe, as well as to the lethal binomial Climate Change + overpopulation in Africa that will cause the detonation in the Mediterranean of new Punic Wars within the 2050, starting from the North-East of Africa. It is possible to apply scenario planning and Ooda loop criteria, defining the potential status of the Mediterranean in 3 superpositions, to infer backlinks, the arrow of European destiny:
Optimistic Universe: the Punic Wars II do not detonate, the endemic causes have been aborted by the EU. If they explode, the new Punic Wars are only for strategic diversion of WWIII, but the causes of detonation have been mitigated. There is no conflict in the Mediterranean, there are only clashes and insurrections, under the sub-Saharan band, with a unitary response by EU-Roma to this threat.
Pessimistic Universe: the Punic Wars II detonate for both endemic causes and strategic diversion of WWIII; neither case was mitigated by non-existent or late EU response (which is impaired by some members). The Italic and Greek theaters are Carthaginian bridgeheads. The Italian peninsula is in financial shock both for the default and for the exit from the Euro, torn by dissolutive and disruptive processes.
Expected Universe: The Punic Wars II detonate for endemic causes OR for strategic diversion of WWIII. The Italic and Byzantine theater are under Carthaginian invasion: asymmetric war and urban clashes. Union's unified response to the Mediterranean crisis, an uncooled response in the Italian Republic.
To date, the "Early Warning" signs do exist:
- The inexistence of USE Army, USE Navy, USE Airforce + a single European foreign policy,
-The absence of a European policy to finance birth control in Africa,
-The Brexit, together with the probable ITALExit after the 1.11.2019 and the continuous fears for Greece,
-The arrival of the new ECB governor of the Teutonic / philotoutonic after Dragons,
-The closure of the DESERTECH consortium,
- Anomalous Italian position on the "sans papier" in contrast with all EU members such as to cause the suspension of Schengen with France, Switzerland, Austria.
-The absence of assisted refoulements and expulsions of economic migrants refused in Europe,
-The Italian will to make public debt (Italian or European) to finance current expenditure in Italy for a false migration emergency that has nothing to do with a policy of birth control in Africa.
-The absence of a semi-presidentialist constitutional reform in Italy,
- Failure to suppress Regions, Large Metropolitan Areas, Provinces in Italy,
-The possible appearance of the Federal Senate of the Regions,
-The uncontrolled growth of Italian public debt that has been unsustainable for some time,
-The Italian political will not to repay part of the huge Italian public debt (ie the future impossibility of leverage to mitigate the damage caused by climate change),
-The emergence of interest for a return to the Lira,
-The enlargement in Italy of the difference between material and formal constitution
IMHO have long indicated that the Optimistic Universe is no longer reachable. The detonation of the Punic Wars II is ineluctable, the Italian peninsula is approaching the initial conditions of the Mediterranean context in the Pessimist Universe in the 21st century.
The writer asks, in conclusion, if the Italian vision of the state and the future of Europe is the same as the other Europeans: more freedom of expenditure and more political-decisional independence. Austria and the Visegrad countries have for some time been raising issues of a more identity-cultural and economic nature: as well as Ireland and Spain, former Hapsburg subjects have only benefited from participation in the Union and do not ask to be allowed to grow up. in a safe environment (compared to the Russian threat) and financially sustainable. The countries coreapart from Italy, they are witnessing political changes that concern, once again, the position of citizens and of the country with regard to multiculturalism, once triumphant and now called into question (by so-called sovereignists) or claimed as still present (think the advance of the Greens in Austria and Germany).
Nobody disputes the rules of the game, apart from Italy. Yes, because almost everywhere in Europe over the last twenty years, liberal-liberal reforms have been more or less successfully achieved, and we have tried to control public debt, as we do. But only in Italy in the 2018 continues, in bars as in the corridors of the buildings, to fear the austerity and to fight for the spread, as if we were back at 2011.
Having said that, for the writer, the future of Europe seems to be linked to the choices of the Franco-German axis, since there is no longer London with which to renegotiate every decision and Italy having voluntarily placed at the margin: therefore, we will only see modest reinforcements a confederation that guarantees the single market and helps the two driving powers in the global projection of their interests.
Regarding Security and Geopolitics, the EU is totally incapable of facing regional or global challenges and must rely on the good will of Paris and Berlin. And in this, unless we make a qualitative leap in the process of integration, there is no solution. In the event of a serious systemic crisis, probably someone will take the ancient project out of the cylinder Framania, the Franco-German unification, already evoked by the French in proposing the extension of their nuclear umbrella to Germany. Moreover, no one proposes it at the moment, nor is it possible to imagine it.
(photo: European Parliament)
