The word to the readers: the future scenarios of Russia. Next week: the European Union!

Good Sunday everyone! Just over a week ago, we asked readers to write, if they wanted to share and argue their position, an analysis of the geopolitical situation of the Russian Federation, in particular with reference to the challenges facing the great Eurasian country in the next ten years, presumably the last of the Putin era. The aim was not to exalt the gigantic figure of the Russian statesman or to highlight the many limitations regarding respect for the rule of law and international law, rather than placing Russia in the evolution of the international scenario. Below, we publish the most interesting answers, all non-Putin-centric.

Before going into the reading, I will tell you the subject of the column next week: after the role of Italy as a regional power, Italexit and the geopolitical future of Russia, the reader is given the opportunity to be creative and to write - following the usual rules¹ - be an analysis of the state and future scenarios of the European Union and its thinking about the changes it considers desirable in the process of European integration. Remember the e-mail to send the "piece": geopolitica@difesaonline.it.

The writer reserves some personal considerations on the subject of today - Russia - at the end of this article.

The Sergio Pession player is an old acquaintance of this column, understands the Manichaeism often induced by political analysis and has the courage to pause for a moment to consider the sufferings suffered by the Russian people. This is not the case with the reader, but often we tend - talking about Russians and Americans - to take a clear stand, almost supporting the "immaculate conception" of one or the other. Of the disasters made, even in recent years, from the US leadership are full even the news: now, however, I allow myself a consideration that will cost me a few criticisms ... All have given to Turkey for his refusal to recognize the "Great Crime" ", That is, the Armenians' holocaust by the Young Turk government in the 1915-16, and to Italy, unfortunately, for the racial laws, while too often many have knowingly ignored the real shame of Russian history like the Pogroms costing life or the expulsion to millions of Jews, the Holodomor (1929-33) who exterminated for starvation 3-5 millions of Ukrainians, the indelible ignominy of Katyn and, not to forget, the historical forgery of the Protocols of the Savi of Zion, authentic justification of Nazi and fascist anti-Semitism. In short, Russia has suffered a lot, but a bit 'like all nations, has its skeletons in the closet ... The reader will forgive me the cut, but certain things must be said.

Russia, always, appears to be a battleship in a pond. Since the Empire², has influenced the world below real potential. Held or demonized, but never this shocking greatness (or Old Evil), if not when it needed a scarecrow or a pretext to move armies or justify expansionist policies. Historical antagonisms (Orthodox Church / Catholic Church, Communism / Capitalism and Communism / Religion), have them made clumsy and necessary clothes adversary, like some actors always in the role of the Bad. The Russian people, more invaded than invaders, despite yellow literature, above all he has known innumerable nuances of suffering, culminate with Rivoluzioni, "Comunismo" and Perestrojka. But now ... twist! The "Paladino Buono del Mondo Libero", the US, following controversial international actions and a cinema against the current, becomes more ambiguous ... less good. The evil of all time, apparently less black than in paintings, turn the page, presenting itself as an energy and commercial alternative, pacifying power, producer of software and quality weapons. Russia, facilitated by modern information, regains ground, aspiring to the seat of Good in the World. Starting from nearby Europe, in crisis and debt of space and energy, Russia becomes a temptress capable of igniting diabolical and contrasting passions, compared to the distant US. And where the Catholic Church loses identity and vigor, the Orthodox stable (surviving Stalin) emerges as a new reference. Today's Russia knows what other actors need, and aims to provide it: partnership with China; energy, business space, as well as beautiful women, to Europe; military alternatives to NATO countries (and not); nuclear power plants and training to African countries at the crossroads; islands and bridges to former enemies (Japan); if to all this, they oppose tariffs and financial crises "Made in the USA", we just have to get comfortable and see how the film will proceed: the fall of the Good and the repentance of the Bad?

The writer likes the analysis of the reader Marco Trombino as he is able to grasp the weakness of the accusations in the case of the former Soviet / Russian spy in Great Britain. Defense Online has already spoken with articles still interesting today³. I would say that the position of the reader is very similar to that of the deputy prime minister of the current government⁴, considering the Russian leaders as forced to a defensive position.

The Russian Federation from 2003 is literally subjected to a military siege by NATO countries, who first organized and financed anti-Russian revolutions in many former Soviet countries (Georgia 2003, Kyrgyzstan 2005, Belarus 2006, Ukraine 2014) forcing Russia to react in the Crimea and finally shouting to the invader. NATO has invented non-existent threats of Russian invasion against the Baltic States, Sweden, Norway and consequently deployed a military force on the border with Russia, threatening it closely; has promoted increasingly serious economic sanctions with increasingly laughable excuses to the antics of the Skripal case. Except that this policy has not at all pushed Russian citizens against their ruling classbut rather more cemented their patriotic sentiment and nationalism. This siege can end only in two ways: either with the retreat of NATO or with a thermonuclear war. The idea of ​​surrender does not even pass through the antechamber of the Russians' brain.

Luca has a personal style and, in the opinion of the writer, very pleasant in exposing his analysis. Allow me two observations: the famous / notorious Euro-American sanctions against Russia are a poor figure compared to the duties, really powerful, raised by Washington against China. Does anyone really think that the West, by sanctioning Russia, wanted to do more than send a symbolic message? The second observation: the Russian demographic decline is comparable to that of the major Western European countries, apart from France and Sweden. Why do we get scandalized by empty cribs in Moscow and do not worry about those in Genoa or Milan?

Russian Federation the "What" chapter 1

The Russian Federation "The Thing" is one of the "Fantastic 4"; the other three are China: "the rubber man"; Israel: "the invisible woman" and India: "the human torch". Of the 4 claimants to the world throne, Russia currently suffers most directly the China "rubber man" who with its super powers it is expanding more and more, in the eastern part of the Russian Federation, increasingly inserting a Chinese population that the Russians can hardly control. And if the Amur region became the new one Spratly Islands? The demographic decline is also felt in Russia and since Africa is far away, it is natural that some regions suffer more and more the Chinese population growth: the rubber man is expanding. The invisible woman, Israel that exists and does not exist, is everywhere but is not present. To give an example: Israeli citizens can enter Ukraine without a passport and vice versa. That Ukraine that came out so quickly because a pro-Russian president "stole" now that another pro-Western president seems to be no stranger to certain operations that are not entirely legal and after the West has secured his nuclear arsenal, what does he go back to mother Russia? In my opinion it would be logical: common language and script, religion too, what is the meaning of Israel, oops, excuse the West? India, "the human torch", huge country in all, population, vastness, territorial, friend? Certainly a client, with his uncontrollable superpower, can be set on fire in an instant, at least until another Gandhi arrives and decides to create technological independence, since the scientists and the brains are there ...

Russia, the Thing, like the rock hard superhero, mighty, millennial culture, immense energy resources, amazing and growing technology, does not have children, and Tsar Putin does not live forever, there will be a strong political turnover that holds together the "Thing" hard as a rock? Or will the multi-ethnic country crumble in the wind?

Final reflection: are we sure that Russia is the antagonist of the West? With the excuse of the Western threat, it rearms itself, but are we sure it is precisely to defend itself from the "Christian club"? Or does the real danger to the great whale go on vacation to the Spratly islands?

Among all, the analysis of the reader Marco seems to us the most articulate. In the meantime, it considers Russia from the Commonwealth of Independent States, namely Russia and those former USSR states that have remained in Moscow's orbit.⁵ and evaluate the future of the former great power from various points of view.

The geopolitical situation of the CIS, with reference to the challenges of the coming decades.
Policy: ad today "new Putin" are not visibleHowever, Putin could produce a dolphin, to prevent the CSI from a power vacuum that would cause chaos and secession from the CIS.

Economy: The overpopulated world will be increasingly competitive, with scarcity of food, raw materials, energy, drinking water, currency and financial wars. There Russia survives from the export of raw materials, fossil fuels, sale of weapon systems. The first items will gain value with increasing "licenses and joint ventures" in Siberia for the exploitation of natural resources. The sale of armaments produces BROKEN ARROW favoring China, Iran, India, Pakistan, such countries with their own industry are able to modify, improve the Russian systems and design new and innovative ones.

Social: Demographic decline in Russia, population growth in Bangladesh, India, Iran; constancy of China; in Asia 5.2MLD of people in 2050 are expected. In Russia, there will be growth in health and social security expenditures to the detriment of military spending; the Siberian areas will be attracted by China and its proxies. From the galaxy of the CIS countries with "STAN" suffix, fragmentation or secession from the CIS could occur with polarizations on Iran, India, Pakistan.

Technology: A quantitative and qualitative decline of Russian weapon systems is expected in the coming decades, if there is no optimization of the systems, the obsolescence, the heterogeneity of the Russian apparatuses will cause the disabling of a large part of the Russian conventional arsenal, a contraction of the strategic nuclear one, a constancy of the tactical nuclear one.

Ambient: Acceleration of the desertification process in Asia, north-shifting of the temperate climate, sea level growth + Hurricanes, changes in direction and monsoon seasonality. Water shock and declines in agricultural yields in Asia; the desert will expand in the Steppe, the Taiga will become Steppe, the Tundra will become Taiga. The level of the Polar Sea will rise causing large seasonal flooding in the Siberian low coast causing massive emissions of greenhouse gases (uncontrollable for humanity).

Legal: It is impossible to return the USSR with the Central Committee, social issues caused by an aging population they could consolidate authoritarian democracy, how to pluralize Russian democracy.

The resulting long-term PESTEL on Russia, IMHO can only produce two outcomes:

1. If the Russians renounce the nostalgia of the superpower and if they understand the needs (induced by Climate Change) of the other players in Asia, it is possible that the Russians will sell Siberia to China, India, Iran, Pakistan-Bangladesh, smiting the WWIII in Siberia. 

2. Alternatively, it will be war in Siberia: 3 types of possible WWIII exist

WWIII (first restriction) Europe = Defender + USA = NeutralChina vs India (WWIII first restriction with minimal interaction actors)
(China + Iran) vs (Russia) + India

(China + Iran) vs (Russia + Europe + India)

(China + Iran + Chartago) vs (Russia + Europe)

(China + Iran + Chartago) vs (Russia + Europe + India)

WWIII (second restriction) Europe = Neutral + USA = Defender

China vs (Russia + USA + India)

(China + Iran) vs (Russia + USA + India)

(China + Chartago) vs (Russia + USA + India)

WWIII (third restriction) NATO = Defender

China vs (Russia + NATO + India)

(China + Chartago) vs (Russia + India + NATO)

(China + Iran + Chartago) vs (Russia + NATO + India)

Now, in conclusion, the writer reserves the right to say his own. I forgive the boutade, but Russia has always seemed to me like the rottweiler around which a poodle wags its tail. The owner of the first dog swears that his pet is a "good animal" and that "it would not hurt a fly", but the second dog knows that only one bite of those powerful jaws could cut him in two. Here, in the role of the poodle are 13 14 countries with which it borders the Russian Federation (the fourteenth is China and as a geopolitical dimension she is also a ... mighty dog), forced to do every time the accounts with the Russian giant, which will be pure "Under siege" for the moves of NATO (which, it must be said, has not deployed nuclear warheads on the Russian borders, as Moscow has instead made Kaliningrad ...), but since the fall of the Soviet Union to today has occupied militarily territories of three Countries (Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia), not to mention the Kurile islands claimed by Japan and the ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine. It is not to be doubted that he did it with the most solid justifications: nevertheless, the bite of the rottweiler hurts even if these, in the crushing, had the best intentions ... As colossal and often led to resolving conflicts with conflict, the today, the Eurasian giant appears to be nothing more than an out-of-state oil emirate: equipped with a formidable nuclear arsenal, it has the guarantee de facto of the status of international power, but dependent solely on the sale of commodities. Without his nukes, Russia would seem a pantographic copy of Ukraine, with gas instead of coal. Other limit: apart from Syria, Iran and Egypt, Moscow has lost all "important friends" globally, often being forced into a potentially deadly embrace with China, the main political partner, buyer and supplier of Moscow . The problems that Russia will have to resolve internally in the coming years are well represented by those faced by the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi group with its investment in Lada: what in Moscow seems to work like in London, Milan or Paris, in the rest of the country moves with rhythms to say the least bolsi and shines only because of inefficiency. Here, if Russia will not be able to implement deep internal reforms, never even attempted by the Putinian leadership, satisfied by the high price of hydrocarbons and other commodities, the inevitable post-Putin crisis or Putin's senescence could reopen old wounds and force the Country to face a new internal crisis, even before unlikely global conflicts. To those who ask what the future Russia will have, the answer - for the one who writes - is: what will determine the ethnic balance of a country that in ten years could have a third of the population that is not even expressed in Russian.