A deafening silence welcomed the presentation to the press of the DEF (economic and financial planning document) last week. Still, it was to be expected that the stakeholders of the new Parliament, the various Salvini, Di Maio and Grillo, would have put the resigning council president Paolo Gentiloni and the economy minister Pier Carlo Padoan on fire because, to paraphrase San Paolo in the second letter to the Thessalonians, they have deliberately ceased to carry out - as all governments did by the sovereign debt crisis of the 2011 to date - the function of katechon, "the one who holds back", in this case not the antichrist, but the overwhelming forces of Euroburocracy and other European regional powers.
Introduced for the first time in the July maneuver of the 2011 and repeatedly amended, the safeguard clause is the rule that provided for the automatic increase of VAT in case the State can not find the planned resources. In general, it is one of the tools through which our government seeks to "safeguard" not our national interests, but the budget constraints provided for in the European treaties. The measures expressed by the clauses can be of various types: contraction of public spending and / or increase in taxes and taxes. In particular, between the 2019 and the 2021, if a correction of the public accounts does not intervene, VAT rates will jump from 10 to 13% and from 22 to 25,9%: a generalized and anti-cyclical increase in prices of goods and services capable of sinking the fragile recovery of the Italian economy. We can say that by doing so the outgoing government has deliberately triggered the "doomsday bomb", the "end of the world" bomb: to defuse it, the political forces will have to join forces or accept that the country is overwhelmed by the huge explosion.
In practice, in the general silence, a condition has been created that not even the Serbian crisis of 1998 or that, already mentioned, of the 2011 with 400 billions of maturing bonds can equalize creating a "national government of salvation" climate. Or from the Weimar Republic (photo).
The game until a few days ago rewarded those who remained outside:
- The center-right in the case of Five Star Government - Democratic Party
- Beppe Grillo's movement in case of government between center-right and Renzi
- The democratic party in case of government failure between grillini and leaguers
Now, however, those who remain outside and do not assume the burden of a maneuver "tears and blood" made by a government with broad legitimacy and perhaps, forcing the hand tries to get early elections, due to the probable "jerk" of said "Safeguard clause", the effects of which are comparable to sanctions against Russia.
It does not come out: Renzi returns to the center of the games: not so much for the possibility of coaling, but because Lega and Cinque Stelle will not lose popularity by making a government that, in any case, will have to put their hands in the portfolios of the Italians, a big problem for those who have promised "citizenship income" or "excise cut" immediately.
Already, in the end the most serious solution would be in the "governing government", with all the leaders inside, on the Swiss model, which at most leave out LEU and PD, so as to be able to express the maximum legitimacy. But the Five Stars and the League will not stay there, convinced that staying out will have everything to gain in terms of popularity. A risky choice, given that no majority that "squeezes" the Italians in the autumn of 2018 will take them to the elections before five years.
Once, as in the 1998 and 2011, Forza Italia would have lent itself to support individual measures, for the good of the country (or at least for its good name), in the absence of unity of intent in the center and left. Now, the votes of Berlusconi count as the two of spades when the trump is flowers: they are impractical for a majority Di Maio-Renzi, are useless for a government Di Maio-Salvini. But they are good for a government of national salvation, in which one does not look at anyone's pedigree, but seeks, in fact, the broadest legitimacy. Hypothesis for now far ...
So we return to the government of Count Gentiloni Silveri: who sees him in office for another few months, perhaps he is not wrong. Mattarella himself is one of these. Said executive could assume the burden (without honor ...) to intervene at the request of the parties, still engaged in their plum, perhaps with the support of the PD (which is largely an expression) and of Forza Italia, with the Lega converted to the sense of responsibility and at least willing to abstain. Theory, for the moment.
And to think that a reform of the 10 article of the Constitution, if implemented, would have allowed the outgoing government to act immediately. Now read: The Italian legal system conforms to the generally recognized norms of international law. If it were formulated, for example, like this: The Italian legal system, in accordance with the strategic interests of the country, conforms to generally accepted international law - then, the government, even if the political crisis was prolonged for months, could by means of decrees to intervene well beyond the ordinary administration, to exercise its fundamental task, which is precisely that of "holding" the enemy forces of the non-negotiable interests of Italy. Yes, because an Italy exhausted would be easy prey for those who point to Leonardo, Fincantieri, ENI and other assets that we still have and that the political class often forgets. Yeah, but who explains it to Salvini and Di Maio that - acting in the interest of the country at the cost of turning many "followers" adoring in "hater" upset - would make the leap in quality from "political politician" to "statesman"?
(photo: Palazzo Chigi / web)
