Better to avoid a conflict with Europe in the conditions in which we find ourselves

(To David Rossi)
28/05/18

"Agree with your opponent quickly while you are on the way with him, so that the opponent does not hand you over to the judge and the judge to the guard and you are thrown into prison. In truth I tell you: you will not get out of there until you have paid the last penny!"

It seems to hear the president Sergio Mattarella warn the premier appointed Giuseppe Conte - and through him his stake-holder Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio - about the consequences of a bad management of relations with European and Atlantic partners - and primarily with Germany -, while it is not a speech by the head of state but the fifth chapter of the Gospel according to Matthew . Yes, because in these days - during the slow labor of the first Lega and Cinque Stelle government - to commentators - in taking a "pro-European" position or in placing themselves among the sovereigns - he can not, perhaps out of modesty, write something very simple : what room for maneuver do we have, in the context of an exemption - only of a façade or even a substantial one - from the political process of which the European Monetary Union is the clearest element? In a nutshell, in order to assess whether Italy should take a position, so to speak, more autonomous, first we must understand if it is able to do so.

The writer does not propose to deal with this subject in depth, but to give a few elements of reflection to the reader, because his position is not limited only to cheer for the Azzurri against Germany. Yes, because our country is - remaining in the football metaphor - world champion of participation in conflicts to which it is not prepared: the Austro-Prussian war1 in the 1866, the first Italo-Ethiopian war2 in the 1895-1896, the first world war3 in the 1915-1918, the second world war in the 1940-1945 just to name a few ... Here, the point is this: we are prepared for a conflict - bloodless but potentially devastating financially and commercially - and, if so, to what extent are we ready to bear the brunt with the European Union and the regional powers participating in it?

From a diplomatic point of view, have we created a network of relations with global and regional powers that acts as a "parachute" in view of black days in Europe? It does not seem right, if we consider that France and Germany are normally invited to participate in hosting negotiating tables or to perform functions of mediator in almost all crises from the former USSR to the Persian Gulf (Ukraine, Iran, Libya, Qatar etc.), while the Italian government at most receives a phone call from French and German leaders after meetings and decisions taken elsewhere. This is independent of the economic data: in Iran we have commercial and industrial interests at the level of Berlin, but we count as much as Spain or Slovakia, when it comes to "getting serious". We are active with military and humanitarian missions in the Near East, but the new majority do not seem determined to continue these policies.

Yes, the economy, we said a moment ago. We are Europe's second industrial power, yet the main article of Italian exports are neither high-quality goods nor services with high added value, but the securities relating to our debt. Consequently, our first interest is to sell it at the best conditions for our coffers, as sellers? We realize that cutting the deficit is a way to keep the debt tiger in check, because the more we produce it, the less it is worth for our "customers" and the more it costs us in terms of interest4? !!! It doesn't take a degree in economics to understand it ...

Someone should explain to voters that with what the government pays in half-day interest, a 500-bed hospital can be built with the best equipment and six-day interest rates for an aircraft carrier like ours. Cavour (photo).

At the moment, like me or not, Italy is a founding member of institutions called European Union, European Central Bank, Schengen Area and so on. Not by chance, we are the second beneficiary of European structural funds: we are also just sestultimi for use5, which speaks volumes about the inefficiency of our country system, which goes well beyond the ignorance of the political class.

The writer could dwell, but prefers to let these lines be a prod, not a treaty. We really believe we can do better than the rulers of 1866, 1895, 1915 and 1940 proposing, in 2018, to open hostilities with other European countries - the main customers of both our debt and the Made in Italy: - for the purpose of expanding our public debt against our national interest, while we refer to Brussels every year seventy billion that we have not been able to spend? Or rather, it is not advisable to strengthen the country system, not pouring on our children a burden that we can hardly bring, postponing the request for autonomy from the Union to other times, probably not far away, when perhaps one or more of one of the big banks of the leading countries will be with water to the throat, like a Monte dei Paschi any, due to huge amounts of derivatives issued, for amounts equal to tens of times the GDP of a random power, Germany.

So when - returning to the initial metaphor - the opponent will be weaker, we can decide on our future without fear of serious consequences. Because the regional powers, which today look like "too big to fail", will perhaps be tomorrow too big to be saved.

  

1 That the patriotic rhetoric - as well as the textbooks of History of the Bel Paese - call "Third War of Independence".

2 Of which the defeat of Adua was the culmination, with the loss of two thirds of the forces in the field.

3 The country was still exalted by the difficult victory in the Italo-Turkish war of the 1911-1912.

4 By the way, we pay 90 billion each year only for interest, that is to say, almost 2.900 Euro per second!

5 We have just spent 2,4 on 73,6 billions of Euros granted by the EU.

(photo: Quirinale / Bundesregierung / Navy)